After a streak of positive jobs data, April’s payroll numbers MASSIVELY missed expectations. The economy adding just 266K jobs during the month vs an expectation of nearly 1M. In short, this was one of the largest downside misses on record. The economy is still more than 8 million jobs short of the pre-pandemic [...]
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So far Stephanie Ciardi has created 30 blog entries.
Not A Happy St. Patrick’s Day for Bonds!?Investors with exposure to bonds have been asking two primary questions. The first centers around whether current interest rate trends will continue. The second, builds upon the first and relates to future bond return expectations given the current direction of interest rates.Question 1: Are interest rates going to [...]
Yields Rising Market Diving All eyes are on interest rates as the 10-year Treasury yield continues to grow. Rates are rising on increasing optimism the pandemic is coming to an end and the economy will return to “normal.” If true, and the economy begins to gain speed, then the Fed may be forced to [...]
Economic Traction with Fed and Stimulus Action The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made it clear he will continue to support the bond market, saying "now is not the time" for a discussion to end that help. The Fed further stated that they had learned lessons from the 2013 taper tantrum and would telegraph [...]
Market Rises with No Surprises Global stock markets reached new all-time highs during the month of December, as investor optimism continues to show strength around the world (1). While the stock market is a forward-looking mechanism, the current environment still has plenty of room for recovery. COVID 19 cases continue to peak and set [...]
A Balance of Power and Vaccine Positively Received What’s happening now: Four major events arrived during November, and their effects were both immediately witnessed and continue to be seen in the markets across the globe. Those four major events are the U.S. elections, promising news of vaccines, another COVID-19 wave accompanied by ensuing shutdowns, [...]
Economic Signs of Life What’s happening now: October continues to show signs of an economy that continues to improve from its abrupt stop. While the recovery is a welcome addition to this year's historic course, taking a closer look at the health of the economy reveals that although many segments have recovered, others have [...]
Low Rates, Market Head Fakes What’s happening now: As noted last week, September has shown an increased level of equity market volatility as technology stocks pulled back. In the Nasdaq Composite Index, an official correction (-10% off the high) was reached in just four trading days – the fastest ever on record(1). Most experts [...]
Reaching New Highs on Stimulus Expectations What’s happening now: The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high as investors continue to have faith that Congress and the Fed will pump additional stimulus into the economy (1). Despite initial reports Republicans and Democrats would come together on a second round of stimulus in early August, [...]
Federal Reserve Pumping Keeps the Market from Dumping? What’s happening now: Equity markets continue to push higher as investors expect Congress and the Fed to continue pumping stimulus into the economy. It is our expectation that the new stimulus package will come in early August and will be less robust as the first package. [...]