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What You Should KnowFollowing May’s S&P 500 sell-off of -6.35%, June rallied back +7.05% on a total return basis to finish the two consecutive months in the positive and just below all-time highs. International markets, such as the MSCI EAFE, which includes 21 developed nations outside of the US and Canada, encountered a similar down-in-May and up-in-June type of experience.Our view is that the market and global economy currently sits in a transitionary period, where headlines and macro developments can have a significant impact on price. Volatility to the downside and upside can attract investors who have been waiting for [...]

Team Tempus is committed to keeping you well informed about what’s happening in the markets. Here are a few key topics of conversations that we feel deserve the most attention this month. Fixed Income: Due to some weakening of U.S. economic data, June saw a strong increase in the probability for the Federal Reserve to reduce the current Federal Funds Rate. Although the Federal Reserve decided against making any changes during June’s meeting, probabilities remain strong that interest rates could move even lower in the coming months. In the meantime, trade uncertainty and speculation about interest rates have dropped [...]

Team Tempus is committed to keeping you well informed about what’s happening in the markets. Here are a few key topics of conversations that we feel deserve the most attention this month. Fixed Income:  In late March, we saw the 90-day Treasury yield drop below the 10-year Treasury yield for the first time during the current economic expansion. This phenomenon is referred to as a “yield curve inversion” and has preceded every recessionary environment in modern times.  However, this yield curve inversion was short-lived and recovered in early April. As global buying pressure on high [...]

What You Should Know Year-to-date, as of 3-31-2019, the S&P 500 Index returned 13.65%, the US Aggregate Bond Index returned 2.94% and the MSCI EAFE (global index) returned 12.18%.  Given the overall equity rally, as expected, the VIX (volatility index) declined steadily over the quarter closing at 13.71.  In a January 30 press release, the Fed appears to have transitioned to a dovish stance by declaring they expect to maintain or slowly adjust rates over 2019, a sentiment well-received by equity markets.   Despite the return to strong equity performance, a yield curve inversion near the end of [...]

Tempus unpacks key topics, expectations and the economic bottom-line. Key topics of conversation:  Earnings – For many, it felt as though the bear market of 2018 departed as quickly as it arrived. According to Bloomberg, 68% of corporations have met or beat earnings projections in Q4 2018 and have provided fairly optimistic expectations toward the future. Although earnings are only one piece of the marketplace, if a broad swath of S&P 500 companies missed their projected earnings estimates, then we would expect more selling and less buying. However, that has not occurred so far this year, [...]

Shutdowns, trade wars, market uncertainty, oh my! Tempus unpacks what's happening now, expectations for the month ahead and the economic bottom-line.