Markets will continue to focus on the border wall showdown and trade conflicts. The recovery in the stock market over the past weeks has been welcomed, but we are still concerned that the key issues contributing to December’s dramatic downturn have not been overcome. We expect the government shutdown to end in the coming weeks with some form of a negotiation that allows both sides to claim a small victory, but we do not expect US-China trade resolution until late February. Be prepared for some anxious days and weeks.
We continue to see stable and healthy economic data. Currently, we have no economic data that supports a recession in the next 6 to 12 months.
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