Looking Ahead: Trade agreements between the US and China are back in the spotlight, and we are hopeful for a resolution between China and the US in the coming months. Many leading economic indicators show that the US is in a healthy economic condition (4). Moving into the latter half of Q2, we will keep an eye on labor markets and business sentiment as a helpful read on the current business cycle. Equities may see some consolidation in price in the near term; however, when we contrast with the historical performance of the market, spouts of volatility should be expected as commonplace.
Bottom Line: The beginning of 2019 saw historic performance for S&P 500 returns which eclipse previous all-time highs from 2018. Headwinds for continuing the S&P’s upward trajectory include but are not limited to uncertainty surrounding trade. Whereas tailwinds are being provided by a strong labor market, an accommodative Federal Reserve, and low expectations for profit and earnings growth. We believe volatility could continue in the near-term until trade issues are resolved. Overall, we do not anticipate a recession in the US economy during the next 6-12 months.
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